Market announcement
AS LHV Group
Category
Other corporate action
Attachments
Date
13.02.2024 08:00:00
Title
LHV Groupi 2024. aasta finantsplaan ja viie aasta finantsprognoos
Message
Värske 2024. aasta finantsplaani järgi vastab LHV langevatele intressituludele käesoleval aastal ärimahtude, teenustasutulude ja efektiivsuse kasvatamisega. Prognoositavad allahindlused ja intressikulud toovad siiski eelmise aasta rekordkasumiga võrreldes tagasihoidlikuma puhaskasumi. Võtmenäitajad FP2024 2023 ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maksude-eelne kasum 142,1 164,6 -14% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Puhaskasum 120,1 140,9 -15% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hoiused 6674 5731 16% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Laenud 4037 3562 13% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fondide maht 1668 1519 10% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Finantsvahendajatega seotud maksete arv (mln tk) 62 47 32% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kulu/tulu suhe 46,4% 43,3% +3,2 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (tulumaksueelne; omanike osa) 24,0% 34,1% -10,1 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (puhaskasumilt; omanike osa) 20,3% 29,2% -8,9 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kapitali adekvaatsus 22,5% 21,9% +0,6 pp * Arvutatud perioodi kuu lõpu keskmiste omakapitali mahtude alusel Ärimahud toodud miljonites eurodes Finantsplaan näeb käesolevaks aastaks ette LHV ärimahtude olulist kasvu. Konsolideeritud hoiuste maht kasvab plaani järgi 943 miljoni euro võrra ehk 16% 6,67 miljardi euroni. Oluline osa kasvust peaks tulema jaeklientide hoiustest, nii Eestis kui ka Ühendkuningriigis. LHV prognoosib konsolideeritud laenuportfelli suurenemist käesoleval aastal 476 miljoni euro võrra, mis tähistaks 13% kasvu ja aasta lõpuks 4,04 miljardi eurost portfellimahtu. Kasvust peaks tulema 151 miljonit eurot Eesti ettevõtete panganduse laenude kasvu arvelt ja 105 miljonit eurot jaelaenude kasvust. Ühendkuningriigis on laenuportfelli kasvuks plaanitud 220 miljonit eurot. Ühtlasi prognoosib finantsplaan laenukahjude kasvu ja allahindluste suurenemist ettevaatavalt 23,4 miljoni euroni. Finantsvahendajate maksete arv jätkab ka sel aastal kiiret kasvu 32% võrra 62 miljoni makseni. LHV Bank Limitedil on plaanis käesoleval aastal liituda otse euromaksete süsteemiga ja alustada eraklientidele arveldusteenuste pakkumisega Ühendkuningriigi turul. LHV juhitud fondide maht kasvab finantsplaanis tänavu 10% 1,67 miljardi euroni ehk 149 miljoni euro võrra. Prognoos ei sisalda pensionifondidelt edukustasu teenimist. LHV Kindlustuse brutopreemiad kasvavad 2024. aastal 15% 36 miljoni euroni. Plaanis on suurendada kindlustuse portfelli, et optimeerida tulubaasi ja vähendada portfelli volatiilsust, ning parandada kõiki finantsnäitajaid. Kokkuvõtvalt näeb finantsplaan 2024. aastaks ette AS-i LHV Group konsolideerimisgrupi tulude minimaalset vähenemist 309,1 miljoni euroni, mille põhjuseks peamiselt intressimäärade langusest tingituna netointressitulude 6% vähenemine, kuna netoteenustasutuludele prognoositakse 27% kasvu. Kulude kasvuks plaanitakse 7% kasvu 143,6 miljoni euroni. Grupi puhaskasumiks prognoosib ettevõte selleks aastaks 120,1 miljonit eurot, mis tähendab 15% langust eelmise, rekordaastaga võrreldes. LHV Groupi omakapitali tootluse suhtarv ROE jääb 2024. aastal 20,3% tasemele ning kulu/tulu suhteks prognoosib ettevõte 46,4%. Kasumlikkust mõjutavad oluliselt suurenenud kapitalinõuete täitmiseks emiteeritud instrumentidega kaasnev intressikulu, neto teenustasutulu kasv ning laenude allahindlused tulenevalt majanduskeskkonnast ja krediidiportfelli kasvust. LHV dividendipoliitika püsib, kuid 2024. aasta finantsplaanis on arvestatud grupi juhatuse ettepanekuga nõukogule maksta 2023. aasta eest dividendideks 35% aktsionäridele kuuluvast maksude eelsest kasumist koos sisalduva tulumaksuga. See tähendab 0,13 eurot dividendi aktsia kohta. LHV Groupi juhatuse esimehe Madis Toomsalu kommentaar: "Majanduse kehvemaid väljavaateid on võimalik parandada investeeringutega. Soovime anda siin oma panuse ning jätkata Eesti majanduse ühe suurima finantseerijana. Ühendkuningriigis oleme pangana alles alustanud, kuid juba käesolevaks aastaks ootame Eestiga võrreldes sama suurt laenumahtude kasvu. Kahel turul kokku soovime 2024. aastal laenumahtusid kasvatada 476 miljoni euro võrra. Ärimahtude kasvu ootame ka oma teistelt põhiäridelt - makseteenused, pensionifondid ja kindlustusteenused. Samuti prognoosime teenustasutulude kasvu klientide aktiivsuse suurenemisest. Intressimäärade üldise languse taustal ootame 2024. aastal LHV intressitulude langust. Viitajaga kasvanud intressikuludele soovime vastata efektiivsuse suurendamisega ning kulude distsipliiniga. Meie kapitalitasemed püsivad tugevana, kuid peamine fookus on laenutegevuseks vajaliku finantseeringu kaasamisel, eelkõige hoiuste näol. Pikaajaliselt defineerime end jätkuvalt kasvuettevõttena. Järgmise viie aasta ärimahtude kasvuks oleme laenude puhul planeerinud 3,8 miljardit, hoiuste puhul 5,2 miljardit ja fondide puhul 1,2 miljardit eurot. Seejuures ootame LHV Bankilt kolm korda kiiremat kasvu, kui saavutasime 2009. aastal LHV Pangaga alustades esimese viie aasta jooksul. Pikaajalise plaani peamisteks märksõnadeks on klientide grupiülene suurem aktiivsus ning tehisaru laiapõhjaline kasutuselevõtt. Tehisaru kasutamiseks on paljudes valdkondades juba täna märkimisväärseid võimalusi ning plaanime neid võimalusi nii otsida kui kasutada. See peab hoidma meid efektiivse ja tulemuslikuna ka eesootavatel aastatel." Finantsprognoos 2024-2028 AS LHV Group avalikustab järgmise viie aasta finantsprognoosi. Prognoosi koostamisel on eeldustena arvestatud, et esialgu Eestis jätkub majanduslangus, kuid majanduskasv taastub alates 2025. aastast, hinnakasv aeglustub, samas määramatus püsib. Eeldatud on baas-intressimäärade olulist langust kuni 2025. aasta keskpaigani ja seejärel stabiliseerumist. Samuti on eeldatud, et LHV dividendipoliitika püsib, v.a 2024. aastal tehtav ühekordne suurem dividendimakse, ning Varahalduse teenib alates 2026. aastast edukustasu. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Võtmenäitajad FP2024 FP2025 FP2026 FP2027 FP2028 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maksude-eelne kasum 142,1 163,6 183,0 228,0 293,9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Puhaskasum 120,1 132,3 147,5 183,0 233,8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hoiused 6674 7681 8723 9747 10902 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Laenud 4037 4755 5610 6510 7375 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fondide maht 1668 1900 2160 2432 2716 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Finantsvahendajatega seotud maksete arv (mln tk) 62 73 87 103 123 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kulu/tulu suhe 46,4% 45,4% 44,7% 41,1% 36,8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (tulumaksueelne; omanike osa) 24,0% 24,8% 24,9% 27,2% 30,6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (puhaskasumilt; omanike osa) 20,3% 20,0% 20,0% 21,8% 24,2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kapitali adekvaatsus 22,5% 22,0% 21,5% 21,7% 22,6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Arvutatud perioodi kuu lõpu keskmiste omakapitali mahtude alusel Ärimahud toodud miljonites eurodes Pikaajalise prognoosi järgi LHV kõik olulised ärimahud järgmise viie aasta jooksul kasvavad. Hoiuste maht suureneb 1,9 korda 10,90 miljardi euroni, samal ajal kui laenude maht kahekordistub 7,38 miljardi euroni ning fondide maht suureneb 1,8 korda 2,72 miljardi euroni. Rõhuga efektiivsusel on plaanis tulusid kasvatada kuludest kiiremini. Tuludele prognoosib ettevõte 10% aastakasvu, samal ajal kui kulud kasvavad keskmiselt 6% aastas. Tulude poolt on mõjutamas Ühendkuningriigi panga tulude suurenev osatähtsus. Kulude kasv saab tulenema peamiselt tööjõukulude ja IT kulude kasvust. Majanduskeskkonna muutustest ja krediidiportfelli mahu kasvust tulenevalt arvestatakse prognoosis ka allahindluste kasvuga. Prognoosi kohaselt jõuab LHV konsolideeritud puhaskasum 11% keskmise aastakasvuga 2028. aastaks ligi 233,8 miljoni euroni. Kõikidel aastatel on plaanis omakapitali tootluse 20% eesmärgi saavutamine. Grupi kulu/tulu suhe jätkab järgmisel 5 aastal vähenemist. LHV Group muudab 2024. aasta finantsplaani juhul, kui muutub tõenäoliseks planeeritava puhaskasumi üle 10% erinevus finantsplaanist. Viie aasta prognoosi uuendab ettevõte 2025. aasta alguses. AS-i LHV Group aruanded on saadaval aadressil: https://investor.lhv.ee/aruanded. Finantsplaani tutvustamiseks korraldab LHV veebiseminaride keskkonna Zoom kaudu investorkohtumise 13. veebruaril kell 9.00. Investoreil ja huvilistel palume registreeruda aadressil: https://lhvbank.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_9RW3tbKVTkC9ZSNi4y6mEg. LHV Group on suurim kodumaine finantskontsern ja kapitali pakkuja Eestis. LHV Groupi peamised tütarettevõtted on LHV Pank, LHV Varahaldus, LHV Kindlustus ja LHV Bank Limited. LHV ettevõtetes töötab üle 1060 inimese. LHV pangateenuseid kasutab detsembri lõpu seisuga 417 000 klienti, LHV hallatavatel pensionifondidel on 123 000 aktiivset klienti ja LHV kindlustusega on kaitstud 161 000 klienti. LHV Groupi tütarettevõte LHV Bank omab Ühendkuningriigi pangalitsentsi ning pakub pangateenuseid rahvusvahelistele finantstehnoloogia ettevõtetele ja laenusid väikese ja keskmise suurusega ettevõtetele.? Priit Rum LHV kommunikatsioonijuht Telefon: 502 0786 E-post: priit.rum@lhv.ee (mailto:priit.rum@lhv.ee)
Title
LHV Group financial plan for 2024 and the five-year financial forecast
Message
According to the financial plan for 2024, LHV will respond to falling interest income this year by increasing business volumes, fee and commission income, and efficiency. However, projected write-downs and interest expenses will bring a more modest net profit compared to last year's record profit. Key indicators FP2024 2023 ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Profit before taxes 142.1 164.6 -14% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net profit 120.1 140.9 -15% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Deposits 6,674 5,731 16% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Loans 4,037 3,562 13% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of funds 1,668 1,519 10% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of payments related to financial intermediaries (million pcs) 62 47 32% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cost/income ratio 46.4% 43.3% +3.2 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (before taxes; owners' share) 24.0% 34.1% -10.1 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (on net profit; owners' share) 20.3% 29.2% -8.9 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capital adequacy 22.5% 21.9% +0.6 pp * Calculated on the basis of the average end-of-month equity volumes for the period Business volumes have been presented in millions of euros The financial plan foresees a significant increase in LHV's business volumes for the current year. According to the plan, the volume of consolidated deposits will increase by EUR 943 million, i.e. 16% to EUR 6.67 billion. A significant part of the growth should come from the deposits of retail clients, both in Estonia and the United Kingdom. LHV forecasts that the consolidated loan portfolio will increase by EUR 476 million this year, which would mark an increase of 13% and a portfolio volume of EUR 4.04 billion by the end of the year. The increase is expected to come at the expense of EUR 151 million from the growth of loans to Estonian corporate banking and EUR 105 million from the growth of retail loans. In the United Kingdom, the loan portfolio is expected to grow by EUR 220 million. The financial plan also forecasts an increase in loan impairment and write-downs to EUR 23.4 million. The number of payments by financial intermediaries will continue to grow rapidly this year by 32% to 62 million payments. This year, LHV Bank Limited plans to join the euro payments system directly and start offering settlement services to retail clients on the United Kingdom market. The volume of funds managed by LHV will increase by 10% in the financial plan this year to EUR 1.67 billion, i.e. by EUR 149 million. The forecast does not include earning performance fees from pension funds. The gross premiums of LHV Kindlustus will increase by 15% to EUR 36 million in 2024. It is planned to increase the insurance portfolio in order to optimise the income base and reduce the volatility of the portfolio, as well as to improve all financial indicators. In summary, the financial plan foresees a minimal decrease in AS LHV Group consolidation group revenues to EUR 309.1 million by 2024, mainly due to a 6% decrease in net interest income due to a decrease in interest rates, as net fee and commission income is projected to grow by 27%. The expenses will increase by 7% to EUR 143.6 million. The company's net profit for this year is forecast to be EUR 120.1 million, which means a decrease of 15% compared to the previous record year. LHV Group's return on equity (ROE) ratio will remain at 20.3% in 2024 and the company forecasts a cost/income ratio of 46.4%. Profitability is affected by the significantly increased interest expense associated with instruments issued to meet capital requirements, the increase in net fee and commission income and loan write-downs due to the economic environment and the growth of the credit portfolio. Although LHV's long-term dividend policy will hold, the 2024 financial plan takes into account the group's management boards proposal to the supervisory board to pay 35 per cent of the LHV Group shareholders' 2023 profit before taxes in dividends, including income tax. That constitutes 0.13 euros per share. Comment by Madis Toomsalu, the Chairman of the Management Board of LHV Group: "Poorer economic prospects can be improved by investments. We want to contribute here and continue as one of the biggest financial providers of the Estonian economy. We have only just started as a bank in the United Kingdom, but we are already expecting the same growth in loan volumes as in Estonia for this year. In total, we want to increase loan volumes in the two markets by EUR 476 million in 2024. We also expect business volumes to grow from our other main businesses - payment services, pension funds, and insurance services. We also forecast an increase in fee and commission income from an increase in client activity. Against the background of a general decrease in interest rates, we expect LHV's interest income to decrease in 2024. We want to respond to interest expenses that have grown with a lag by increasing efficiency and cost discipline. Our capital levels remain strong, but the main focus is on attracting the necessary financing for lending activities, especially in the form of deposits. In the long term, we continue to define ourselves as a growth company. For the next five years, we have planned an increase of EUR 3.8 billion for loans, EUR 5.2 billion for deposits, and EUR 1.2 billion for funds. At the same time, we expect LHV Bank Ltd to grow three times faster than we achieved in the first five years when we started with LHV Pank in 2009. The main keywords of the long-term plan are increased group-wide activity of the client and the broad-based use of artificial intelligence. There are already significant opportunities to use artificial intelligence in many areas today, and we plan to both search for and use these opportunities. It must keep us effective and efficient in the years to come." Financial forecast for 2024-2028 AS LHV Group discloses its financial forecast for the next five years. In preparing the forecast, the assumptions have been made that initially the recession will continue in Estonia, but economic growth will recover from 2025, inflation will slow down, while uncertainty will remain. A significant decline in the base interest rates until mid-2025 and then stabilisation is expected. It is also assumed that LHV's dividend policy will remain, except for a one-off, larger dividend payment made in 2024, and Varahaldus will earn a performance fee from 2026. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key indicators FP2024 FP2025 FP2026 FP2027 FP2028 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Profit before taxes 142.1 163.6 183.0 228.0 293.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net profit 120.1 132.3 147.5 183.0 233.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Deposits 6,674 7,681 8,723 9,747 10,902 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Loans 4,037 4,755 5,610 6,510 7,375 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of funds 1,668 1,900 2,160 2,432 2,716 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of payments related to financial intermediaries (million pcs) 62 73 87 103 123 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cost/income ratio 46.4% 45.4% 44.7% 41.1% 36.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (before taxes; owners' share) 24.0% 24.8% 24.9% 27.2% 30.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (on net profit; owners' share) 20.3% 20.0% 20.0% 21.8% 24.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capital adequacy 22.5% 22.0% 21.5% 21.7% 22.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Calculated on the basis of the average end-of-month equity volumes for the period Business volumes have been presented in millions of euros According to the long-term forecast, all significant business volumes of LHV will grow over the next five years. The volume of deposits will increase by 1.9 times to EUR 10.90 billion, while the volume of loans will double to EUR 7.38 billion, and the volume of funds will increase 1.8 times to EUR 2.72 billion. With an emphasis on efficiency, it is planned to grow income faster than costs. For income, the company forecasts annual growth of 10%, while expenses will grow by an average of 6% per year. The income side is being affected by the increasing share of the income of the bank in the United Kingdom. The increase in costs will be mainly due to an increase in labour costs and IT costs. Due to changes in the economic environment and the growth in the volume of the credit portfolio, the forecast also takes into account the growth of write-downs. According to the forecast, LHV's consolidated net profit will reach nearly EUR 233.8 million by 2028 with an average annual growth of 11%. In all years, it is planned to achieve the 20% target of return on equity (ROE). The Group's cost/income ratio will continue to decline over the next 5 years. LHV Group will amend the financial plan for 2024 if it becomes likely that the planned net profit will differ by more than 10% from the financial plan. The company will update its five-year forecast in early 2025. AS LHV Group's reports are available at: https://investor.lhv.ee/en/reports. To introduce the financial plan, LHV will organise an investor meeting (in Estonian) on 13 February at 9.00 via Zoom, the online seminar environment. Investors and interested parties are invited to register at: https://lhvbank.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_9RW3tbKVTkC9ZSNi4y6mEg. LHV Group is the largest domestic financial group and capital provider in Estonia. LHV Group's key subsidiaries are LHV Pank, LHV Varahaldus, LHV Kindlustus, and LHV Bank Limited. LHV employs more than 1,060 people. As at the end of December, LHV's banking services are being used by 417,000 clients, the pension funds managed by LHV have 123,000 active clients, and LHV Kindlustus is protecting a total of 161,000 clients. LHV Bank, a subsidiary of LHV Group, holds a banking licence in the UK and provides banking services to international financial technology companies, as well as loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. Priit Rum Communications Manager Phone: +372 502 786 Email: priit.rum@lhv.ee (mailto:priit.rum@lhv.ee)