Market announcement
AS LHV Group
LEI code
529900JG015JC10LED24
Size of the entity
Large group
Economic activities
Financial and Insurance Activities
Industry sector(s)
Credit institution
Country of registered office
Estonia
General information
Categories
Other corporate action
Unique data record identifier
10107
Attachments
Submission date and time
14.02.2023 08:00:00
Content of announcement in Estonian
Title
LHV Groupi 2023. aasta finantsplaan ja viie aasta finantsprognoos
Message
2023. aasta on alanud ärikeskkonna ebakindluse ja majanduslanguse taustal, kuid värskelt koostatud finantsplaani järgi saab LHV jaoks käesolev aasta olema varem loodud eelduste realiseerimise aasta. Kasumlikuks peaksid muutuma kõik LHV Groupi ettevõtted, sh LHV Kindlustus ja LHV UK. Plaanitud on finantsgrupi kasvu jätkumine, mis sisaldab Ühendkuningriigi panga käivitamist, LHV Varahalduse juhitud fondide mahu kasvatamist ning LHV Kindlustuse jõudmist kasumisse. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Võtmenäitajad FP2023 2022 ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Maksude-eelne kasum 127,2 75,9 68% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Puhaskasum 108,2 61,4 76% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Laenud 3428 3209 7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hoiused 5653 4901 15% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fondide maht 1570 1332 18% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Finantsvahendajatega seotud maksete arv (mln tk) 34 26 30% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Kulu/tulu suhe 43,9% 51,7% -7,8 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ROE* (tulumaksueelne; omanike osa) 27,4% 20,4% +7,1 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ROE* (puhaskasumilt; omanike osa) 23,3% 16,5% +6,8 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Kapitali adekvaatsus 21,5% 20,8% +0,7 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * Arvutatud perioodi kuu lõpu keskmiste omakapitali mahtude alusel Ärimahud toodud miljonites eurodes Grupi konsolideeritud hoiustele näeb finantsplaan käesolevaks aastaks ette 752 miljoni euro suurust kasvu 5,65 miljardi euroni (+15%). Finantsvahendajate hoiuste maht käesoleval aastal stabiliseerub, jaeklientide hoiuste maht kasvab. Finantsplaanis prognoosib LHV konsolideeritud laenuportfelli kasvu 220 miljoni euro võrra 3,43 miljardi euroni (+7%). Laenude kasv jätkub, kuid on piiratud järsult kasvanud kapitalinõuete ja majanduse jahenemise taustal. LHV Panga ettevõtete panganduse laenude kasvu prognoositakse 144 miljonit eurot ja kodulaenude kasvu 31 miljonit eurot. Ühtlasi prognoosib finantsplaan laenukahjude kasvu ja allahindluste suurenemist ettevaatavalt 24,6 miljoni euroni. LHV juhitud fondide maht kasvab finantsplaani järgi 18% ehk 238 miljoni euro võrra 1,57 miljardi euroni. Aasta lõikes prognoositakse aktiivsete pensioniklientide arvule vähest kasvu. Prognoos ei sisalda pensionifondidelt edukustasu teenimist, kuid LHV Varahalduse tegevus saab 2023. aastal siiski olema kasumlik. Finantsvahendajate maksete arv tõuseb käesoleval aastal 30% võrra 34 miljoni makseni. Äri mõjutab pangalitsentsi omandamine eelduslikult märtsis ning seejärel finantsvahendajate valdkonna järkjärguline üleviimine LHV Pangast LHV UK Limitedi. Grupi Ühendkuningriigi tütarettevõte jätkab äri tugevat arendamist, teenides seejuures intressi- ja teenustasutulu, kuid see toob kaasa ka kasvavad personali- ja IT kulud. Finantsplaani järgi teenib LHV UK Limited 2023. aastal esimest korda kasumit. LHV Kindlustuse ärimahud ja tulud on suurenemas, 2023. aastal kasvavad kindlustuse brutopreemiad 27,1 miljoni euroni (+58%). Selts peaks jõudma käesoleval aastal esmakordselt kasumisse. Aasta jooksul on plaanis laiendada kindlustustoodete valikut ning kasvatada sünergiat pangateenuste kanalitega. Kokkuvõtvalt kasvavad vastavalt finantsplaanile AS-i LHV Group konsolideerimisgrupi tulud 2023. aastal 56% 270,4 miljoni euroni, kulud 32% 118,7 miljoni euroni, krediidikahjud 205% 24,6 miljoni euroni ning puhaskasum 76% 108,2 miljoni euroni. Kasumi kasvumäära mõjutab lisaks intressikeskkonna arengutele ka suhteliselt madal võrdlusbaas, kuna 2022. aasta sisaldas olulises mahus tehtud investeeringute kulu. LHV Groupi omakapitali tootluse suhtarv ROE jääb 2023. aastal 23,3% tasemele ning kulu/tulu suhteks prognoosib ettevõte 43,9%. Kasumlikkust mõjutavad oluliselt suurenenud kapitalinõuete täitmiseks emiteeritud instrumentidega kaasnev intressikulu, inflatsioonist tulenev palga- ja sisendkulude kasv, edasise kasvu toetamiseks uute inimeste värbamine, samuti Ühendkuningriigis tehtavad kulud ja investeeringud organisatsiooni ülesehitamiseks. LHV Groupi juhatuse esimehe Madis Toomsalu kommentaar: "Kasumikasvust hoolimata tuleb käesolev aasta LHV jaoks väljakutseterohke. Kaheksa aasta jooksul kahekordistunud kapitalinõuded pärsivad laenumahtude kasvu. Teenitava kasumi arvelt moodustuva kapitali plaanime siiski investeerida laenutegevuse kasvu taastamisse. Näeme, et just majanduse languse taustal on eriti oluline tagada ettevõtete investeeringute jaoks finantseerimise suutlikkus. Panga kapitali iga ühik võimendub majanduses umbes kaheksakordseks ettevõtte-poolseks investeeringuks. LHV laenuportfell kasvab aasta jooksul 220 mln euro võrra, seejuures jätkame aktiivselt Eesti ettevõtete ja inimeste plaanide rahastamist. Meie eesmärk on finantseerida senisest veelgi enam taastuvenergeetika projekte, aga see eeldab pika tasuvusajaga sektoris selgeid sõnumeid ja kindlust poliitilise riski mitterealiseerumiseks. Ühendkuningriigis oleme teinud suured investeeringud. Loodame jõuda 2023. aastal äritegevusega kasumisse. Sellega muutume finantsteenuseid kasumlikult eksportivaks ettevõtteks. Edasist kasvukiirust mõjutab, kui kiiresti saame LHV Groupi arvelt teha lisainvesteeringud Ühendkuningriigi panga kapitali. Ettevaatavalt on meie järgmise viie aasta prognoositavatele tulemustele oluline mõju intressikeskkonna muutustel. Kulud kasvavad lisaks peamiselt tööjõukulude arvelt. Majanduskeskkonna muutustest tulenevalt prognoosime allahindluste ettevaatavat kasvu. Meie strateegia toetub kolmele kõige olulisemale põhimõttele: parim teenindus, parim tööandja ja parimad investorsuhted." Finantsprognoos 2023-2027 AS LHV Group avalikustab järgmise viie aasta finantsprognoosi. Prognoosi koostamisel on arvestatud, et viie aasta jooksul võib ettevõte ja majanduskeskkond oluliselt muutuda. Baas-intressimäärade tipu saavutamine on eeldatult 2023. aastal ning seejärel on eelduseks võetud selle järkjärguline alanemine. Eeldustena on veel arvestatud, et ärimahud suurenevad, dividendipoliitika püsib ning LHV Varahalduse puhul edukustasu alates 2024. aastast. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Võtmenäitajad FP2023 FP2024 FP2025 FP2026 FP2027 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maksude-eelne kasum 127,2 138,2 163,1 195,2 229,1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Puhaskasum 108,2 117,0 138,1 165,1 186,6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Laenud 3428 3933 4627 5433 6305 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hoiused 5653 7401 8707 10111 11573 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fondide maht 1570 1743 1933 2140 2368 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Finantsvahendajatega seotud maksete arv (mln tk) 34 36 38 39 41 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kulu/tulu suhe 43,9% 43,9% 44,2% 42,5% 41,9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (tulumaksueelne; omanike osa) 27,4% 24,1% 23,9% 24,7% 25,3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE* (puhaskasumilt; omanike osa) 23,3% 20,4% 20,2% 20,8% 20,4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kapitali adekvaatsus 21,5% 21,9% 21,9% 22,1% 21,3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Arvutatud perioodi kuu lõpu keskmiste omakapitali mahtude alusel Ärimahud toodud miljonites eurodes Prognoosi kohaselt kõik LHV Groupi olulised ärimahud järgmise viie aasta jooksul orgaaniliselt kasvavad. Laenude konsolideeritud mahtudele prognoosib ettevõte võrreldes 2022. aastaga 2-kordset kasvu 6,31 miljardi euroni aastal 2027. Hoiuste konsolideeritud maht kasvab prognoosi kohaselt samal ajal 2,4 korda 11,57 miljardi euroni. LHV juhitud fondidele prognoosib LHV viie aastaga 1,8- kordset kasvu 2,37 miljardi euroni. Prognoosi kohaselt kasvavad grupi tulud järgneval viiel aastal keskmiselt 20% aastas, samal ajal kui kulud kasvavad keskmiselt 15% aastas. Prognoosi kohaselt jõuab LHV konsolideeritud puhaskasum 25% keskmise aastakasvuga 2027. aastaks ligi 186,6 miljoni euroni. Erinevalt varasematest prognoosidest sisalduvad numbrites ka Ühendkuningriigi panga prognoositavad tulemused. 2026. aastaks prognoosib LHV grupi kulu/tulu suhte alanemist 41,9%-ni. Aktsionäride puhaskasumil põhineva omakapitali tootlus ületab kõigil aastatel 20% taset. LHV Group muudab 2023. aasta finantsplaani juhul, kui muutub tõenäoliseks planeeritava puhaskasumi üle 10% erinevus finantsplaanist. Viie aasta prognoosi uuendab ettevõte 2024. aasta alguses. AS-i LHV Group aruanded on saadaval aadressil: https://investor.lhv.ee/aruanded (https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=Uhg9kjRD2l4I3s58NDK4DWg07JyEAPFjvKk7 STD_V4vuI171RrDAprskYyYD6sZI7eE2moFCuKtbvxJwUbpZSVbgjjJ5rYTJRP_roRqciAXqis2WMuUY g7ke_H2V-fHH). Finantsplaani tutvustamiseks korraldab LHV veebiseminaride keskkonna Zoom kaudu investorkohtumise 14. veebruaril kell 9.00. Investoreil ja huvilistel palume registreeruda aadressil: https://lhvbank.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_G17Dlp43TgKgWbljBBn9ug. LHV Group on suurim kodumaine finantskontsern ja kapitali pakkuja Eestis. LHV Groupi peamised tütarettevõtted on LHV Pank, LHV Varahaldus ja LHV Kindlustus. Grupi ettevõtetes töötab üle 900 inimese. LHV pangateenuseid kasutab detsembri lõpu seisuga 378 000 klienti, LHV hallatavatel pensionifondidel on 131 000 aktiivset klienti ja LHV Kindlustusega on kaitstud 150 000 klienti. LHV Ühendkuningriigi filiaal pakub panganduse taristut enam kui 200 rahvusvahelisele finantsteenuste ettevõttele, mille kaudu jõuavad LHV makseteenused klientideni üle terve maailma. Priit Rum LHV kommunikatsioonijuht Telefon: 502 0786 E-post: [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
Content of announcement in English
Title
LHV Group financial plan for 2023 and the five-year financial forecast
Message
2023 has started against a backdrop of uncertainty in the business environment and economic downturn, but according to the newly prepared financial plan, this year for LHV will be a year of realising the prerequisites made earlier. All LHV Group companies should become profitable, including LHV Kindlustus and LHV UK. The plan is to continue the growth of the financial group, which includes the launch of a UK bank, an increase in the volume of funds managed by LHV Varahaldus, and LHV Kindlustus reaching profitability. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key indicators FF2023 2023 ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Profit before taxes 127.2 75.9 68% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net profit 108.2 61.4 76% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Loans 3428 3209 7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Deposits 5653 4901 15% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of funds 1570 1332 18% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of payments related to financial intermediaries (million) 34 26 30% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cost/income ratio 43.9% 51.7% -7.8 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (before taxes; owners' share) 27.4% 20.4% +7.1 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (net profit; owners' share) 23.3% 16.5% +6.8 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capital adequacy 21.5% 20.8% +0.7 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Calculated on the basis of average end-of-month equity balances Business volumes have been presented in millions of Euros For the Group's consolidated deposits, the financial plan foresees an increase by EUR 752 million to EUR 5.65 billion (+15%) this year. Deposits from financial intermediaries will stabilise this year, while retail deposits will grow. In the financial plan, LHV forecasts an increase in the consolidated loan portfolio by EUR 220 million to EUR 3.43 billion (+7%). Loan growth will continue, but will be constrained by sharply higher capital requirements and a cooling economy. LHV Pank's corporate banking loans are forecast to grow by EUR 144 million and home loans by EUR 31 million. The financial plan also forecasts an increase in loan impairment and write-downs to EUR 24.6 million. According to the financial plan, the volume of funds managed by LHV will increase by 18%, or EUR 238 million, to EUR 1.57 billion. On an annual basis, the number of active pension clients is projected to increase slightly. The forecast does not include performance fees from pension funds, but the activities of LHV Varahaldus will still be profitable in 2023. Payments from financial intermediaries will increase by 30% this year to 34 million payments. The business will be impacted by the acquisition of the banking licence, expected in March, and the subsequent gradual transfer of the financial intermediaries business from LHV Pank to LHV UK Limited. The Group's UK subsidiary will continue to develop the business strongly, generating interest, as well as fee and commission income, but this will also lead to rising staff and IT costs. According to the financial plan, LHV UK Limited will be profitable for the first time in 2023. The business volumes and revenues of LHV Kindlustus are increasing, with gross insurance premiums growing to EUR 27.1 million (+58%) in 2023. The insurance company is expected to earn a profit for the first time this year. In the course of the year, the plan is to broaden the range of insurance products and increase synergies with banking service channels. In summary, according to the financial plan, AS LHV Group's consolidated revenues will increase by 56% to EUR 270.4 million in 2023, expenses by 32% to EUR 118.7 million, credit losses by 205% to EUR 24.6 million, and net profit by 76% to EUR 108.2 million. In addition to developments in the interest rate environment, the profit growth rate is also affected by a relatively low benchmark, as 2022 included a significant amount of investment expenditure. LHV Group's return on equity (ROE) ratio will remain at 23.3% in 2023 and the company forecasts a cost/income ratio of 43.9%. Profitability is significantly impacted by the interest cost of instruments issued to meet the increased capital requirements, the increase in wages and input costs arising from inflation, the recruitment of new people to support further growth, as well as costs and investments in the UK in order to build the organisation. Comment by Madis Toomsalu, the CEO of LHV Group: "Despite profit growth, this year will be challenging for LHV. Capital requirements, which have doubled in eight years, are holding back credit growth. However, we plan to invest the capital raised from the profits generated into restoring growth in lending. We can see that specially in the context of economic recession it is particularly important to assure the capability of financing investments by companies. Each unit of the Bank's capital is leveraged in the economy into around eight times the amount of corporate investment. LHV's loan portfolio will grow by 220 million euros over the course of the year, as we'll continue actively financing the plans of Estonian private persons and companies. Our ambition is to finance even more renewable energy projects, but this requires clear messages in the long payback period for the sector and the certainty that political risk will not be realised. In the UK, we have made major investments. We expect to reach operational profitability in 2023. This will transform us into a profitable exporter of financial services. Future growth rates will be influenced by how quickly we can make additional investments in the UK bank's capital at the expense of LHV Group. Changes in the interest rate environment are expected to have a significant impact on our projected results over the next five years. In addition, costs will increase mainly due to labour costs. As a result of changes in the economic environment, we anticipate an increase in write-downs. Our strategy relies on three key principles: best service, best employer, and best investor relations." Financial forecast for 2023-2027 AS LHV Group discloses its financial forecast for the next five years. The forecast is based on the assumption that the business and economic environment could change significantly over the next five years. Base rates are expected to peak in 2023 and are assumed to gradually decline thereafter. Other assumptions are that business volumes will increase, the dividend policy will remain unchanged and, in the case of LHV Varahaldus, the performance fee will be earned from 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key indicators FF2023 FP2024 FP2025 FP2026 FP2027 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Profit before taxes 127.2 138.2 163.1 195.2 229.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net profit 108.2 117 138.1 165.1 186.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Loans 3428 3933 4627 5433 6305 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Deposits 5653 7401 8707 10111 11573 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of funds 1570 1743 1933 2140 2368 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of payments related to financial intermediaries (million) 34 36 38 39 41 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cost/income ratio 43.9% 43.9% 44.2% 42.5% 41.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (before taxes; owners' share) 27.4% 24.1% 23.9% 24.7% 25.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROE (net profit; owners' share) 23.3% 20.4% 20.2% 20.8% 20.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capital adequacy 21.5% 21.9% 21.9% 22.1% 21.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Calculated on the basis of average end-of-month equity balances Business volumes have been presented in millions of Euros All of LHV Group's key business volumes are forecast to grow organically over the next five years. In terms of consolidated loan volumes, the company forecasts a 2-fold increase to EUR 6.31 billion in 2027 compared to 2022. Consolidated deposits are projected to grow by 2.4 times over the same period to EUR 11.57 billion. For LHV-managed funds, LHV forecasts growth of 1.8 times in five years to EUR 2.37 billion. According to the forecast, the Group's revenues will increase by 20% over the next five years on average, while expenses will increase by 15% per year, on average. Based on the forecast, the consolidated net profit of LHV will be nearly EUR 186.6 million by 2027, considering the average annual growth of 25%. Unlike previous forecasts, the UK bank's projected outcomes are also included. By 2027, LHV Group expects the cost/income ratio to fall to 41.9%. Return on equity based on shareholders' net profit exceeds 20% in all the years. LHV Group will amend the financial plan for 2023 if it becomes likely that the planned net profit will differ by more than 10% from the financial plan. The company will update its five-year forecast in early 2024. The reports of AS LHV Group are available at: https://investor.lhv.ee/en/reports/ (https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=Uhg9kjRD2l4I3s58NDK4DWg07JyEAPFjvKk7 STD_V4spoP8WJ3Z2NKc70wS8sl4x5lawhnB8SypOFDFKIodnalgJNM-bz_7WVDBPEXMxIc- lWCodWjkY8XgYcsnHtJAi). To introduce the financial plan, LHV will organise an investor meeting (in Estonian) on 14 February at 9.00 via Zoom, the online seminar environment. Investors and interested parties are invited to register at: https://lhvbank.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_G17Dlp43TgKgWbljBBn9ug. LHV Group is the largest domestic financial group and capital provider in Estonia. LHV Group's key subsidiaries are LHV Pank, LHV Varahaldus, and LHV Kindlustus. The Group's companies employ more than 900 people. As at the end of December, LHV's banking services are being used by 378,000 clients, the pension funds managed by LHV have 131,000 active clients, and LHV Kindlustus protects a total of 150,000 clients. LHV's UK branch offers banking infrastructure to 200 international financial services companies, via which LHV's payment services reach clients around the world. Priit Rum Communication Manager Phone: +372 502 0786 Email: [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])